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future reality tree

См.: дерево будущей реальности.



future reality tree

future reality tree - (FRT) - A thinking processes sufficiency-based logic diagram that facilitates answering the question (from the change question sequence): "To what to change?" by presenting a sequence of cause-and-effect relationships that links proposed injection(s) to desired effects (DEs).

Usage: The FRT is constructed prior to implementing any changes in the system. The purposes of an FRT are:

  1. to logically demonstrate that the selected injection or injections, together with any secondary or supporting injections, and their associated effects will cause the majority of the existing UDEs in a system to be replaced by DEs; and
  2. to identify and prevent from occurring any new problems or UDEs that might result from implementing the proposed injection(s). The latter objective is achieved through the negative branch reservation process.

There are two methods of constructing a future reality tree. The original method started with an injection at the bottom of the tree and built upward to reach desirable effects. A more recent method starts the future reality tree with an evaporating cloud, rotated 90 degrees clockwise. Assumptions underlying each arrow of the cloud are used along with injections developed from the cloud to build upward to desirable effects.

Illustration 1: A future reality tree constructed using traditional approach is shown below:

Illustration 2: A future reality tree constructed using an evaporating cloud as a foundation is shown below:

See:change question sequence, desirable effect, entity, negative branch reservation process, sufficiency-based logic, predicted undesirable effect.